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Ten Years
After... And a 20/20 (or 2017) View of the Future
As Printed in November, 2007
Truck Parts & Service
By Bill Wade
Business cycles are funny things... some just appear
(usually recognizable only after the fact) and patterns emerge. An interesting
pattern in the heavy parts business seems to revolve around a ten year cycle of
milestones beginning in 1967:
1967 Channel Organization
CFS formed by leading independents;
Marvin Rush makes his first big fleet sale (100
units);
Paccar forms Dynacraft to capture more parts
sales.
1977 Regulation & Computers
The ICC begins deregulating trucking;
Transnet is formed to electronically send
orders.
1987 OEM Distress
Roger Penske buys a struggling Detroit Diesel
from GM;
International Harvester restructures into
Navistar.
1997 New Financing Sources
FleetPride and Transcom introduce
consolidation;
Rush is first ever vehicle franchise dealer
IPO.
2007 Creative Disruption
EPA II market disruption;
Private Label and China;
NAPA’s formal entry into heavy truck parts.
During this time, the industry has emerged as a $15 billion
higher tech tangle of constantly morphing end users and regulations. Product
life cycles are the briefest in history, while the shortage of trained personal
has hit extremely troubling levels.
Technology has gone on a tear, forming the basis for the
fastest evolutionary phase since trucking got started in the ‘20s. So how about
some predictions for products and distribution over the next ten years... are
you ready for these 2017 products?
- Belt-less, diesel-electric hybrid integrated power
plant/drive systems, with all electric PTO and collateral accessories
feeding off a 500+volt system;
- 360° driver vision with auto reactive safety/collision
avoidance systems monitored in a heads-up display glass cockpit, which also
features a complete HR black box for driver management, insurance and law
enforcement;
- Wireless lighting and braking monitored down to the
fastener level by RFID derivative chips reporting directly to on-board
vehicle management systems;
- Computer controlled, self aligning springless
suspensions that control stability of the vehicle by pulsing a current thru
ferro-magnetic fluid filled ‘shock absorbers’ modules whose stiffness varies
with electrical charge;
- Speed sensitive, aerodynamically adaptable ‘NAFTA
Liners’ specifically designed for long haul, highway only operation,
covered in power generating trailer coatings with superior insulating
properties and self illumination capability.
A different beast, indeed ... no
hydraulics... no pneumatics... less wiring... basically plastic bodied and
lubricated by soybeans and used French fry grease. Not your fathers’ Class 8!
How about the supply industries
that make these things work:
·
All three remaining Class 8 truck builders will employ factory
owned/operated retail chains to distribute vehicles and to provide major
warranty service;
·
Independent parts and service organizations will migrate into two
distinct channels- ESystem/Service Specialists and Legacy Parts (and service)
Centers;
·
Federal licensing/certification becomes mandatory for technicians
servicing emission or safety related systems, training for which will come from
for-profit tech schools and community colleges;
·
Training on legacy and low tech maintenance will be provided
through a guild-like, service industry supplier supported distance learning
model;
·
Combinations of parts and component suppliers will operate complex
common supply chains that allow ‘virtual logistics consolidation’ for smaller
(and foreign) suppliers and force traditional distributors to look downstream
for margin improvement.
Agree? Disagree? Neither the
product nor the distribution models outlined above are necessarily good or bad
for anyone reading this...unless you simply dismiss these possibilities as
futurist hogwash.
These may not happen exactly
as described- but they will happen.
Not convinced? Consider that
every single one of the product/technologies described already exists and is
being developed for market by your existing suppliers... today.
As to the changes in the support
side of the heavy duty business, you need only look at other markets that have
gone through a period of wrenching change in their base technologies to see the
trends that surface time after time.
Business cycles are funny
things... easily recognized in the rearview mirror. The real trick is to see
them coming.
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